The number of COVID-19 cases in the US rose by at least 10 percent in 21 states last week — while a new model predicts a “huge surge” is expected to impact more Americans as early as next month.
New infections accelerated mainly in the West, according to a CNN analysis of Johns Hopkins University data, although some Eastern outliers like North Carolina and New Jersey also saw upticks.
The states where infections are rising include Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington state, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
Another 18 states saw their rates hold steady, while just 11 — including Florida, Connecticut and New Hampshire — saw new cases of COVID-19 decrease by more than 10 percent from a week earlier, according to the report.
Meanwhile, the country could see a “huge surge” in cases starting in October — and increasing through November and December — as people spend more time inside, where there’s a higher likelihood of transmitting the bug, Dr. Chris Murray, director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health and Metrics and Evaluation, told CNN.
The US is tallying roughly 765 coronavirus deaths per day — but that figure could nearly quadruple to 3,000 daily fatalities by December, according to the IHME’s model.
The bleak analysis also comes just days after a study found that less than 10 percent of Americans have COVID-19 antibodies, suggesting the nation is further away from herd immunity than researchers initially thought, the New York Times reports.
The study, which was published Friday in The Lancet, analyzed blood samples from 28,500 patients on dialysis in 46 states and found that 9.3 percent had antibodies to the virus.
The findings roughly match those in a CDC analysis to be released this week that found about 10 percent of blood samples from sites nationwide had antibodies to the virus, the Times reports.
However, The Lancet research showed antibody levels across the country varied greatly. In the New York metropolitan area, which includes New Jersey, the levels exceeded 25 percent of samples tested, while antibody levels dipped below 5 percent in the West, the Times reports.
Meanwhile, New York reported 1,005 new virus cases on Saturday — the largest single-day uptick since early June.
And in California, state health officials are warning that hospitalizations could skyrocket by up to 89 percent if the state’s current rate of COVID-19 infections continues, the Mercury News reports.
“As we see these trend lines, which have been coming down and flattening, look like they’re coming up … we want to sound that bell for all of you,” California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghlay told reporters Friday.
“We want to see us respond as a state to those slight increases.”
California’s rate of new infections and fatalities, however, remained lower last week than those of two weeks ago — at just over 3,500 cases per day and just below 84 deaths per day, the newspaper reports.